Blog 2 - West Midlands Group

Australian agriculture “moving confidently into 2024” – Rabobank annual outlook

Australia’s agricultural sector is “moving confidently into 2024”, with an overall positive outlook for the nation’s farmers and agribusiness industries in the year ahead, Rabobank says in its newly-released annual outlook.

The agricultural banking specialist says a combination of better-than-expected seasonal conditions and lower input costs has helped set up the sector for a strong year. And, while agri commodity prices are “well down on the highs seen over the previous two years”, the bank’s price forecasts point to “continued positive farm margins in key agricultural sectors in 2024”.

Global economic headwinds, however, are set to continue, the bank cautions in its flagship Australian Agribusiness Outlook 2024, with ongoing concerns particularly around China’s economy and import volumes, as well as the impact of geopolitical issues on freight. While locally, a tight labour market will continue to present challenges for Australia’s farm sector and agribusiness industries.

Report lead author, RaboResearch general manager Australia and New Zealand Stefan Vogel said the “major agri sectors” were moving into 2024 with a confident outlook, after “El Nino didn’t turn out as bad as feared, with recent significant rainfall received across most farming areas except Western Australia”.

“Grain farmers are set to plan more optimistically for the purchase of farm inputs and the upcoming planting period for winter crops like wheat, barley and canola,” he said, “especially in the growing areas outside Western Australia, which was the only region that hasn’t received much rain. “For beef and sheep producers, the outlook for farm-grown feed in the first half of 2024 overall looks more promising, allowing them to hold on to more of their livestock and go to market with heavier weight lambs for example.”

Price outlook

While agricultural commodity prices remain well down from the highs reached in 2022, the outlook is overall more positive for 2024, with the bank’s Rabobank Rural Commodity Price Index pointing to prices tracking at improved levels in the year ahead and near the five-year average.

“Price developments will vary per sector,” Mr Vogel said. “Grain prices are likely to remain under pressure, as markets globally and locally battle with a supply outlook for 2024 that is more plentiful than in past years. For a significant 2024 price upside for grain, the world would need to see weather-related supply shortages arise.”

The beef and sheep price outlook is more optimistic and above the 2023 lows, he said.

“Prices in late 2023 moved up from the lows, but the animal protein sector will continue to work through large Australian production volumes that need to move into quite congested global markets, and the economic headwinds that are expected to continue in 2024 won’t help to much improve global demand. Still, we expect 2024, especially the first half of the year, to see higher beef and sheep prices compared with the second half of 2023.”

Global dairy commodity prices, meanwhile, are expected to “have bottomed”, the bank said and will likely improve in 2024.

“Locally in Australia, while there will likely be some downward price pressure on some parts of the southern dairy region for new season milk from July 1, domestic markets will provide ongoing support for farmgate prices, and the margin outlook for dairy farmers remains positive,” Mr Vogel said.

Improved input costs

Farm input costs are also set to be lower this year, Mr Vogel said.

“Farm input prices globally – for fertilisers and plant protection products – are forecast to be below last season,” he said. “As Australia imports most of those products and continues to work through local inventories, we remain confident that costs on farm will look better than last year.

“A good part of farm inputs available in Australia last season were still reflecting the cost of Covid and Black Sea war price shocks, but now lower global prices should make their way through to be reflected in Australian inventory.”

The bank expects to see local nitrogen fertiliser costs decline by 10 to 20 per cent and phosphate by 10 to 15 per cent this year compared with 2023 prices.

“Potash has an even higher potential to ease farming budgets, with prices expected to trend down even more than the other fertilisers,” the report said.

Agro chemical prices are also forecast to decline in 2024 – primarily driven by a “massive increase” in Chinese production capacity in the past three years which is seeing the beginnings of a supply glut in 2024, Mr Vogel said.

However, these price reductions may take some time to be felt at Australian farm gates, as older stock makes its way through the system.

Geopolitical risk

While geopolitics and the escalation of international conflicts could result in a big upward swing in energy prices – which would have a knock-on increase in the cost of farm inputs – for now, crude oil prices have remained “surprisingly subdued” despite heightened Middle East tensions, the bank says.

“Our global crude oil price outlook also remains rather modest and well below US 100 a barrel, at least as long as the conflicts in the Middle East don’t spread wider,” Mr Vogel said.

The risk of higher shipping costs and freight delays, though, does remain a concern, with the Israel/Hamas war and the escalation of military activity around the Red Sea leading to soaring shipping prices, especially container freight, and a tightening of global shipping capacity, as increasingly more freight vessels take a longer route around Africa.

“The good news for now is that shipping costs are still not as high as in the record 2021 Covid-related shipping crisis,” Mr Vogel said. “However if the Red Sea Houthi attacks escalate further, Australia may once again struggle to find containers for export later in the year.”

Global economic outlook

The global economic outlook – while better than in 2023 – is still subdued for the year ahead, the Rabobank report says, and this will continue to create headwinds for Australia’s agricultural exporters.

“China’s economy is likely to remain slow, which isn’t the best set up for our exports to the region, as Chinese consumer demand will need more time to gear up into full swing,” Mr Vogel said.

While Australia’s trade relations with China improved in 2023 – with the removal of Chinese import duties on Australian barley and its tariffs on Australian wine now subject to review – the relationship remains fragile, the report says.

With regard to the ongoing Russia/Ukraine war, Mr Vogel said, global markets appear to have learned how to navigate war-reduced exports from Ukraine, while Russia continues to be a major exporter of grains in 2024. “This makes the possibility of massive grain price swings like the ones seen two years ago rather unlikely,” he said.

Local economic drivers

Locally, there is more positive news on the economic front, the report says, with interest rates forecast to plateau for most of the next six months before rate cuts are expected to come in towards the last quarter of the year.

The Australian dollar – which since the end of December has seen a reversing of strong gains recorded in the last quarter of 2023 – is expected to strengthen modestly again towards late 2024.

“We see the AUD bottoming out at USc 65 before rallying up towards USc 70 on a 12-month view,” the report says.

“This upward move in the currency would slightly contribute to relieving some of the cost pressure for imported inputs and goods used on farm, although it would not be enough to notably hurt Australia’s competitiveness when it comes to agricultural exports,” Mr Vogel said.

Labour will remain a pressing challenge for the farm sector, the Rabobank report says, with the tight labour market expected to continue. “And this will require an ongoing focus to invest in labour efficiency technologies,” Mr Vogel said.

Sustainability

Sustainability – and especially emissions reductions – will remain a key theme for the year ahead and into the long-term future, the report says, as Australia and the world continues to work on reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

“Supply chains are working on solutions, trials and testing consumers’ willingness to pay,” Mr Vogel said.

“On farm, most of the transitions are still to come, and more and more farmers seek to understand the emissions footprint of their operations and what changes to put in place.”

To find out more about Rabobank, contact Rabobank’s Moora team on (08) 9690 8500 or subscribe to RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness Australia & New Zealand on your podcast app.

Rabobank have been a long term supporter of the West Midlands Group.

CBH Group Harvest Wrap 2023/24

The CBH Group officially marked the end of the 2023/24 harvest in Western Australia on 15 January, with growers across the state delivering 12.5 million tonnes of grain into the network.

While the 2023/24 harvest officially started on the same date as the previous year (27 September) in the Geraldton Zone, this year’s harvest was smaller and finished earlier than last year’s record crop.

CBH received the 12.5 million tonnes across 104 sites in the network, with 407,000 tonnes the biggest day of receivals (compared to 603,000 tonnes in 2022/23).

Three daily site receival records were set at Chillinup, Pingrup and Gairdner and no new site total receival records were reached. In comparison to the 2022/23 harvest, the co-operative registered 53 sites that set daily tonnage records across the network, and 45 site total receival records.

Chief Operations Officer Mick Daw said this 2023/24 harvest was a reminder of the highs and lows of agriculture.

“Early on in the year, it was clear for many growers that 2023 would not be a repeat of the previous two bumper harvests,” Mr Daw said.

“As conditions worsened and estimates came in during June and July, we started making plans to accommodate seasonal conditions in our services this harvest.

“We anticipated this year’s crop to yield higher screenings and higher protein for many growers.

“To address this, CBH introduced additional utility grades, changed quality optimisation limits and rules, and made high moisture grading system changes, to create more opportunities for growers to capture the value of their grain.

“Pleasingly our safety performance improved slightly this harvest, and our incident response continued to deliver better safety outcomes across the network.

“I want to sincerely thank all CBH employees, contractors, and growers for their tireless work to safely and efficiently bring in this year’s harvest. The sustained level of professionalism and commitment to the task is a testament to the strength of Western Australia’s grain growing communities.”

Zone total receivals were down across the board, with the Albany Zone taking the largest amount of 3.2 million tonnes across the network.

Figure 1: Total Zone Receivals 2023/24 vs 2022/23

CBH is now focused on the 2024 outloading program, and ensuring more grain tonnes get to port in the first half of the year to help drive better prices for growers in line with CBH’s Path to 2033 Strategy.

CBH Group have been a long term supporter of the West Midlands Group.

Grower Group Conversations: Reflecting on knowledge sharing

The Soil CRC Knowledge Sharing Project (KSP) extension series is now available from the Soil CRC YouTube channel.

Produced and presented by Simon Kruger, KSP project grower group participant and Project Communications Officer at West Midlands Group (WMG), this four-part series sees participating grower group representatives sit down and reflect on some of the key learnings from the Soil CRC’s Knowledge Sharing Project.

WMG Project Communications Officer Simon Kruger chatting with CWFS’s CEO Diana Fear in one of the KSP extension series conversations.

Episode 1 features Birchip Cropping Group’s (BCG) Kelly Angel talking about reactive events and strategic engagement.
Episode 2 features Central West Farming System’s (CWFS) Diana Fear discussing engaging with farmers in challenging times.
Episode 3 features West Midlands Group colleagues Dr Nathan Craig and Melanie Dixon chatting about sharing knowledge and engaging with farmers at their Pasture Walk events.
Episode 4 features Ag Innovation & Research Eyre Peninsula’s (AIREP) Joshua Telfer talking about shifting soil and land management narratives.
Episode 5 is a bonus episode featuring top tips for farmer engagement from all KSP extension series guests.

As a companion to the YouTube video series, the full conversations between Simon and other grower group participants have been released on the West Midlands Group Paddock Chat podcast channel.

The Knowledge Sharing project is funded by the Soil CRC and was led by Dr Hanabeth Luke from Southern Cross University. For more information visit the KSP Project page or the Soil CRC website.

Work experience at the West Midlands Group

By Kate Parker, Murdoch University Agricultural Science Student

For those who have not met me, my name is Kate and I have just completed two weeks work experience with the West Midlands Group (WMG). I am a Murdoch University Agricultural Science student majoring in Animal Science and through my studies I have developed an interest in agricultural extension work, in particular the role of grower groups.

Although I had heard of a grower group before, I wasn’t exactly sure what they ‘do’ and wanted to know more. I contacted Nathan at WMG hoping to get some work experience, looking to better understand what the day to day of the job is like, what goes on behind the scenes of research, development and extension and the role that WMG and other grower groups play in the agricultural industry.

In the 2 weeks of my placement at WMG I have had the opportunity to learn an incredible amount. I met farmers from all around the West Midlands region and saw firsthand how knowledgeable, motivated, and passionate they are about their farms and the industry as a whole.

One of my first activities was heading out with Mixed Farming Systems Officer Melanie, seeing a practical example of the extension work WMG does through one of their current projects, the K Extension Project. Melanie was presenting project participant farmers with their K Nutrient Infographic and working with them to understand this new way of presenting complicated nutrition data. This showed me that part of a grower groups job is to explore different communication and extension strategies and how to better formulate data to meet the farmer’s needs. The farmers responses to this project demonstrated how insightful and adaptable they are, already thinking about the next steps and the viability of the information.

Kate on farm tour with Warradarge farmer and WMG member Will Browne

While travelling around with Melanie I also had the opportunity to look at physical trial and project sites, learning how they are set up and the work that goes into getting them into the ground, as well as how they are monitored. Having never seen multi-species pasture mixes before it was interesting to see their multitude of applications and how each species work with each other to get the most out of their environment.

During the second week I got to see practical examples of soil testing with Project Communications Officer Simon as he completed soil testing for the Evolving Soil Testing Project. This included both obtaining the soil cores, making sure to get a representative paddock sample, and then seeing the results from previous soil tests. This helped me get a better understanding of some of the more theoretical content I have been taught through my university course.

Kate chatting about multi species pasture mixes with WMG Board Chair Murray Grey & WMG Project Communications Officer Simon Kruger

While there was plenty of travelling around to different farms during my work experience, I also got to see the ‘office work’ side of the job. From designing a flyer for a workshop to writing and editing a case study for a project, I got the chance to contribute to some of the other communications material produced by WMG. I was also able to sit in on different styles of meetings with the WMG team, such as a DPIRD and Soil CRC meeting for the Future Carbon Project and a weekly staff meeting. It was interesting to see the amount of work and process that goes on behind physical project outputs and trials, with open discussions on progress and plenty of constructive team communication.

I have now come to the end of my time at WMG, and I can comfortably say that I have a much better understanding of what a grower group is and what they do. I have also been able to grow my knowledge on soils, nutrients and pastures as well as further develop my communication skills both written and interpersonal. It has been a privilege to be a part of such a happy, healthy, and hardworking workplace for the past two weeks and I hope to continue to watch what they do into the future.

Transforming data into discussions

In my previous K update article (November eNewsletter), I stated that the GRDC-funded K Extension Project’s current goal was to “transform complex data into accessible, practical knowledge for our host farmers.” I believe the creation of the K nutrient infographic has been a turning point in this project and in ticking off that goal.

In 2024, the project continues to concentrate on potassium (K) management, particularly by creating more opportunities for grower interaction within the West Midlands region. This January, the project is at a crucial stage of interpreting and communicating complex soil nutrition data with farmers. This three-year project is structured around fostering discussions on K management and devising nutrient strategies aimed at understanding and potentially maximizing yield potential.

This summer’s critical development was the creation of a nutrient budget infographic, a shift from the initially planned Potassium Management Triangle. This decision emerged from the challenges in effectively presenting the multifaceted data involving environmental, management, and soil K aspects. The final infographic, a result of several iterations, now effectively displays crucial information including 2024 management specifics like applied K during the growing season and critical K levels at various crop growth stages for wheat, canola, and barley. It also incorporates detailed graphs on cumulative soil K, soil moisture, and soil strength, offering a comprehensive, easy-to-understand nutrient budget (without all the rows of an Excel spreadsheet).

January has been a big month for heading out on farm to discuss the K nutrient budgets with the host growers. The new infographic has been crucial, particularly in facilitating a discussion about soil K, soil constraints, and on-farm data collection. These conversations are vital to the project because they are not one-directional but allow us to expand our collective understanding of K management in a practical, conversational context. This approach reflects our effort to balance informative content with honest, open discussions with our members.

The project’s next phase will be to document growers’ experiences in soil and plant testing, understanding nutrient budgets, and K cycling through case studies. These case studies are not focused on the direct results of the sampling but on the experiences, insights, and challenges of both this project and on-farm K management.

Throughout 2024, we aim to broaden the scope of the K conversation by setting up demonstration sites across the West Midlands region, inviting more growers to join the dialogue, and turning it into a collective, community-wide discussion rather than isolated one-on-one conversations.

For further information on the K Extension Project or to engage in our ongoing discussions, contact me at 0459 353 840.

Melanie Dixon
Mixed Farming Systems Officer, WMG

Supporting grower group capacity to better inform growers

Over several iterations the Risk Reward Tool (RRT) being developed as part of the WMG led Soil CRC Risk/Reward Project has evolved into a writing guide, design template and onboarding suite designed to aid grower groups in producing more farmer-friendly, informative technical reports.

While dense and hard to read technical reports are often seen when communicating trial and project results, initial research findings from this project have demonstrated the need for clear, concise, and farmer-centric information in project extension and communication materials. The evolution of the RRT reflects these initial research findings, as well as a recognition from the industry on the need for improved agricultural communications and extension.

The final version of the tool developed as the key output of the project is aiming to ensure technical reports effectively speak the language of farmers, facilitating their understanding and decision-making processes, while simultaneously providing a support tool for grower groups themselves. This standardisation not only expedites report writing but also guarantees consistent quality and format across different regions and farmer communities. Grower groups utilising the tool can tailor reports to their specific needs, dedicating more resources to direct support and outreach.

Surveys conducted in the project have highlighted financial feasibility is a crucial factor for farmers considering new technologies. The RRT aims to tackle this concern by including a section focused on the production of detailed economic analyses in technical reports. The inclusion of these analyses in reporting looks to provide farmers with clear visualisations of potential returns, cost comparisons, and resource allocation considerations. Armed with this data, farmers can make confident decisions about investments and financial implications, enabling them to maximise the potential benefits of new innovations and technologies.

The current phase of the project is user testing by participating grower groups to shape the final version of the tool. This will ensure it effectively addresses both grower group, and farmer specific needs and challenges.

Open communication and collaboration remain key to the project’s success, guaranteeing the RRT becomes a vital asset for grower groups, ultimately benefiting farmers and the broader agricultural industry through focused, user-friendly, and informative technical reporting.

Soil CRC Project Spotlight with Dr Nathan Craig. Nathan explains how two Soil CRC projects (including the RRT) are helping grower groups and extension officers deliver information to farmers, so they can make well-informed decisions.

The RRT project is funded by the Soil CRC, led by the West Midlands Group and supported by project partners Corrigin Farm Improvement Group, Central West Farming Systems and Charles Sturt University.

For more information on this project get in contact with us at extension@wmgroup.org.au.

Simon Kruger
Project Communications Officer, WMG

Nitrogen modelling, collaboration and risk: What’s in store for 2024?

Over the past two months, I have been working on the GRDC funded Ri$kWise project, a new National-based project to assist farmers in evaluating the risk and reward of various farming practices.

My focus has been on understanding APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator), a program that models crop growth, development, and yield through a range of environmental scenarios.

I have used APSIM to model different nitrogen strategies across multiple soil types and locations over a 20-year period, and how these changes effect wheat yield. The comprehensive data generated through simulation modelling allows us to have an informed conversation around the response to nitrogen fertiliser across the region. for example, did you know that the average response to nitrogen fertliser can vary between 1 t/ha and 7 t/ha?!

In 2024, WMG will team up with the Mingenew-Irwin Group to host a series of Participatory Action Research Group meetings across the Northern Agricultural Region to pull apart this data and get a better view on the factors that impact on the risk of applying nitrogen. These sessions are designed to be interactive, allowing us to share results, refine the APSIM models and deepen our understanding of nitrogen strategies.

The aim is to create a group where experiences and trials can contribute to the broader regional nitrogen knowledge base. The PAR process moves away from traditional trials that dictate both the problem and the solution; this project is about exploring the broader spectrum of nitrogen decisions in agriculture. The outcome is a collaborative environment where farmers can come together to explore and trial solutions that resonate with their unique needs and interests.

In the future, we will be working on other topics that impact on the risk and reward of farming practices; our next focus will be on machinery decisions and how this affects production and profitability.

In both cases, it is the first time that this approach has been used to understand the risk and reward of our key farming decisions. From these group meetings, we will be supporting growers to trial and understand what this means for their own farming system to reduce the risk involved with cropping.

This GRDC project is led by CSIRO and WMG is one of the many grower groups across Australia who are investigating the factors that optimse the profitability and risk profile of cropping systems.

Melanie Dixon
Mixed Farming Systems Officer, WMG

Perennial & annual pasture system providing liveweight gains

FEED365 is a DPIRD led project, designed to maximise forage production and work toward year-round feed for livestock. This year, the WMG site at Gillingarra has had fantastic results, where a paddock of established perennials has been oversown with a mix of forage cereals and lupins. There was a focus in 2023 to increase soil fertility and species diversity, building on the vetch seed bank from previous years. A successful year would see increasing dry matter production and increasing the grazing intensity without negatively effecting groundcover. The goal was to create a resilient paddock that could maintain soil health and feed production.

Cattle were weighed immediately before and after grazing. The treatment paddock was able to sustain an average daily gain of 1.4kg which surpassed the control (perennials only) average daily gain of 0.4kg. This result suggests that we are on the right track! The increase in feed quality is a major factor driving this success. In 2024, in consultation with DPIRD and the goals of the host farmer, we will be looking at how to maintain this success. A key consideration is the livestock market that farmers are working under. Although it is possible to get fantastic results, it may not always be economically viable.

Also happening in 2024, we’re gearing up for a new FEED365 site at Warradarge. The focus will be setting up a productive permanent pasture paddock through a regenerating serradella and cereal mix. The hardiness of forage cereals and the nitrogen fixation of the serradella should create a durable, sustainable, and nutrient dense pasture that is suited to the sandy (and windy) Warradarge environment.

For anyone interested in the FEED365 project or the new developments at Warradarge, please feel free to reach out.

Melanie Dixon
Mixed Farming Systems Officer, WMG

WMG focus on soil health and soil testing continues into 2024

It is well documented that a combination of soil tests and on-farm observations will assist in determining the nutrient requirements of both crops and pastures. Regular sampling and lab testing provides farmers with critical information to make informed decisions about input requirements, paddock optimisation and limiting factors. Understanding the variability of your paddock both across and down helps to build a better profile of soil health and is a critical tool in decision making and farm management.

Throughout 2023 there has been a concerted focus on soil health from WMG, with both the commencement and continuation of multiple soil focused projects and key events. One of the main projects that has assisted in this regional focus on soil health is the Evolving Soil Testing Project. The goal of the project is to assist farmers and land managers in the Wheatbelt region of WA with improving their soil testing program and implementing sustainable practices that enhance soil health.

Soil constraints & opportunities panel at the 2023 Spring Field Day

WMG has been working with 10 farmers across the West Midlands region to help them improve their soil testing programs by carrying out soil tests on their properties and providing them with the necessary resources and information to feel confident about soil testing. With harvest finishing up for most of the region, the next few months of summer are again the opportune time for ramping up soil testing programs.

As well as heading back out to properties to carry out more soil testing, we will be updating our Evolving Soil Testing Project webpage over the coming months, releasing several case studies of the farmers we have been working with on the project, and releasing a short series of videos exploring soil testing in farm management, understanding your paddock ‘down’ and what the numbers mean in soil test lab results.

Working directly with farmers is the main way that WMG provides value to its members, if you are interested in learning more about evolving your soil testing or trialling a new practice, get in contact with us at comms@wmgroup.org.au.

Simon Kruger
Project Communications Officer, WMG

WMG: Expanding what we do for the Ag industry

WMG now offers a wider range of extension and communication products and services to the Ag industry after an intensive 18-month organisational development period.

A common challenge among the 43 grower groups across WA is that we both compete and collaborate with each other for a decreasing amount of project funding; it just depends on the day!

Since at least 2014, WMG has recognised this dichotomy and has pursued multiple roles in the industry. We have now expanded our range of products and services that we provide to drive the future Research, Development, and Extension outcomes needed by industry.

Our number one focus is on our members and assisting them to identify and adopt new practices and technologies that improve farm productivity and profitability. This is evident in our purpose – to support the sustainable growth of agriculture in the West Midlands region of WA.

All that we do is designed to improve the delivery of information to our members. To achieve this, we need to be here for the long run – a viable organisation ready to take up future challenges when they rear their ugly heads. We do love a good opportunity too!

The second focus for WMG in the past was to lead and administer large collaborative projects that provides a benefit to the livestock or cropping industries. WMG currently lead two national projects in our favourite topic area – extension and adoption!

Large, collaborative projects give the organisation significant experience, capacity and capability, and knowledge in project delivery, and has led us to dramatically ramp up our efforts to deliver outstanding project management.

In delivering on these activities as a whole, we find that many of the tools and tips that we have developed and learned, particularly around extension and communication, are valued by others in the Ag industry.

The experience that we have gained in the past 18 months through project delivery, industry analysis, and in-house testing of new approaches now allows us to offer the following products and services:

Post-project extension campaign design and delivery.
Assessment of inherent adoptability of your new product/technology.
Communications campaign advice and feedback.
Development of communication material through video, podcast, social, and printed media.

Our point of difference is understanding the gap between research that has been completed, and the current learning preferences of farmers in this post-covid world.

To discuss how we can improve the delivery of your next extension and communication campaign, contact Nathan on 0438 924 208 or eo@wmgroup.org.au.

Nathan Craig
Executive Officer, WMG